It depends on the news. In 415 cases where decisive news met a Polymarket question, the odds were unchanged 15 minutes later four times in five. When the odds did move the way the news pointed, most of that move usually came after the report reached Kronical, which matched each report to its market in a median of 24 seconds. Scheduled economic data was the exception: markets priced it almost instantly. None of this says the odds will move, or which way.
What we measured.
We took every case between 26 June and 11 October 2026 where Kronical’s pipeline judged a report decisive for a specific Polymarket question: 415 cases across 154 questions, after removing questions that were settling that day. For each, we read the odds from Polymarket’s minute-by-minute price history an hour before the report, when it reached Kronical, and at intervals up to a day after.
What we found.
- Kronical matches a report to its market in about 24 seconds. That is the median time from a report entering Kronical’s feed to it being matched to the prediction-market question it bears on. Posts on X reach the feed a median of 29 seconds after they are posted.
- Most decisive reports do not move the odds straight away. Fifteen minutes after the report, the odds had not moved in four cases out of five. After a day, 45% had moved the way the news pointed and 33% the other way.
- When the odds did follow the news, most of the move usually came after Kronical had the report. In the cases where the odds moved at least two points the news’s way, the median share of that move coming after the report was 100%.
- The type of news matters. Geopolitical stories repriced slowly. Scheduled economic releases were priced almost instantly, often before a matching report reached Kronical.
Averages over the day after each report, compared with the hour before. The ranges are wide, and one market accounts for about half of the overall movement.
Two cases, both ways.
Slow, then fast: the Iran example above. The question asked whether the US would announce a halt. Reports of a pause arrived from the first evening, and the odds stayed between about 35% and 55% for more than a day. They moved when Trump confirmed it himself, telling Israel’s Channel 12 he had frozen attacks to give talks a chance. Kronical carried those comments a few minutes before the odds started to climb, from about 41% to 88% in half an hour. The wording of the question decided what counted.
Fast: a July question on whether the Fed would hold rates. The odds jumped from 62% to 87% within minutes of a cooler-than-expected inflation release. Kronical carried the release within a minute, but the report it matched to that question came three minutes later, by which time the market had moved.
Limits.
- Our own selection. Every case exists because Kronical’s pipeline judged a report decisive for a market, and that judgement can be wrong.
- Concentrated topics. 61% of cases are about Iran and the Middle East, and one market accounts for about half of the overall movement. Without it, the after-report share drops from 71% to about half.
- Times are when Kronical received a report, not when it was first published elsewhere. The matched report is not always the first report of a development.
- Prices are minute-by-minute samples from Polymarket’s price history, not prices anyone could necessarily trade at.
- Short window. 26 June to 11 October 2026, 415 cases across 154 questions.
How to follow a question yourself.
Read the question’s resolution rules first: the exact wording decides what counts. Then let Kronical do the reading.
Questions.
How fast do prediction markets react to news?
It depends on the news. In 415 cases where decisive news met a Polymarket question, the odds were unchanged 15 minutes later four times in five. Scheduled economic data was priced almost instantly. Slower-moving geopolitical stories often took hours, sometimes days, to show up in the odds.
Are prediction markets accurate?
This study did not measure accuracy. It measured timing: when a decisive report reached Kronical, and what the odds on the matching question did before and after.
Can Kronical tell me what the odds will do?
No. Kronical reports what is published and what the market currently implies. It does not forecast prices or outcomes, and nothing it sends is advice.
What do I need to follow a prediction market question?
News alerts on any question are on the free plan. Seeing the current odds alongside the news, in an agent or inside Claude and ChatGPT, needs the Pro plan.
Kronical reports what is published and what markets imply. It does not predict prices or outcomes, and nothing here is advice.
